Every season, 32 teams pursue the Lombardi Trophy. But the battle doesn’t stop there – each individual player also competes against one another for the chance to be named the Most Valuable Player.
To be named the best of the best in the NFL is an extreme honor, but picking one out of over 1,000 players isn’t easy – yet, NFL MVP odds are very commonly talked about among football fans.
We found that there are ways to identify and predict the MVP, and in this guide, we’ll try to break down the best candidates who could take home the award this season. Looking for the best site for your wagers? Our number 1 recommendation is Bovada, but there are many others we’d like to share with you.
Let’s get started!
Latest 2023-2024 NFL MVP Odds
Here are the current top 15 in MVP odds for the upcoming season.
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) +700
- Joe Burrow (CIN) +750
- Josh Allen (BUF) +800
- Jalen Hurts (PHI) +800
- Lamar Jackson (BAL) +1200
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +1400
- Justin Herbert (LAC) +1400
- Justin Fields (CHI) +1400
- Aaron Rodgers (GB) +1400
- Dak Prescott (DAL) +2000
- Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +2000
- Deshaun Watson (CLE) +3000
- Trey Lance (SF) +3500
- Russell Wilson (DEN) +3500
- Geno Smith (SEA) +3500
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Overview Of The NFL MVP: History, Trends, and Betting Insight
The NFL MVP was first established in 1957 when the Associated Press would vote to decide which player across the league was most impactful to their team’s success over the course of the season.
Over time, the award has continued its strong tradition, but there are certain trends and insights that have become notable. Before you place your bets on who could win MVP, keep these facts in mind.
The MVP Has Become A QB Award:
A quarterback has won the award in each of the past eleven seasons, and that trend seems likely to continue. There have been seasons where players at other positions have dominated but received no acknowledgment by MVP voters as a result.
The last non-quarterback to win it was Adrian Peterson in 2012. So it’s possible, but probably best to stick to the quarterback or running back only because the last time the winner wasn’t at one of those positions was even earlier – 1986.
Team Success Matters:
Player success is king in the MVP voting, but if the player isn’t on a team that succeeds, then they likely won’t get the credit they deserve – definitely something to keep in mind when betting.
There have only been two occasions where the MVP didn’t also make the playoffs, and that happened in 1967 and 1973.
Before placing your bet, make sure the player you’re picking is someone you’re confident will be in the playoff picture. Not to mention that in the past 11 seasons, the winner also hasn’t been lower than the 2 seed in their conference. So, make sure to take a look at Super Bowl odds, too, to understand the team success better.
“Most Valuable” Isn’t Always Accurate
Narratives and voter fatigue play a huge part in the MVP race, so the odds may be stacked against Patrick Mahomes more with his MVP win last season, and the best QB may get pushed aside if he goes cold in a final couple of games of the year.
Try to find someone who you believe will finish strong on a great team, and if successful, you’re on a very good track to predict the winner.
Breaking Down Candidates for the 2023-24 NFL MVP Winner
For the next section of our article, we’ve selected three candidates that fit the criteria of three categories.
Favorites – those who have plenty of expectations surrounding them to potentially win the MVP. Dark horses – those that are down a little lower but could take the jump and win it this year. Then there are the longshots – the guys way down in the ranks who have notable factors working in their favor to potentially surprise.
So let’s dive into a few options that fall under each category and evaluate the best odds on each player.
Favorites To Win the 2023-24 NFL MVP Award
Across the sportsbooks, there are a few who linger toward the top. Will they match expectations? Who knows. However, there is good reason to still bet on some of them. While the returns aren’t as eye-popping as some of the underdogs, they’re favorites for a reason, so here are some of the top options for you to consider when you hit the books.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+700)
Analysis: Fresh off of an MVP and Super Bowl-winning season, Patrick Mahomes is established as the face of the NFL, no questions asked. However, that won’t slow him down. As long as he has Travis Kelce and some receivers with a pulse, he’ll find a way to make things work.
In order to have things work in Mahomes’ favor, the big question mark will be Travis Kelce. The dominant tight end is 33, so he needs to continue to play at his prime level, or else the offense could regress due to a lack of weapons surrounding Mahomes. Regardless, with Reid and Mahomes together, the offense is bound to produce in some capacity.
For the success to be rewarded with an MVP, though, the Chiefs cannot be outshined. The award is very much tied to narratives, so anything less than a top 2 seed for Kansas City would be disappointing and likely result in the MVP going elsewhere. It’s a tough task, but Mahomes is more than capable of making it happen
Buying The Value?: Buy, repeating as the MVP is tough but not as difficult in the NFL as it is in other leagues. Mahomes has a knack for turning it on in the final weeks of the season, and going into the vote with momentum is huge. Mahomes may be the favorite giving the least beneficial odds, but he’s still worth the wager.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+750)
Analysis: Last season, the MVP hype surrounding Burrow was high with the new additions to the offensive line and fresh off of a Super Bowl run last season. However, injuries and regression by some key pieces made things rough out of the gates, and despite the strong play to end the season, it wasn’t enough to take it home.
This year, things look similar. The Bengals added to their offensive line; the offense is filled with good weapons, and excitement is high. For things to work in Burrows’s favor, the Bengals have to match or outperform expectations which means winning the AFC North is a must.
For Burrow, he will need Orlando Brown Jr to be a high-level offensive tackle, which is a better scheme fit he should be. On top of that, the Bengals must start the season strong so the full body of work for Burrow qualifies him for the MVP.
If Brown struggles or the offensive line gets hit with an injury bug again, struggles could happen as a result, and blown games, especially late in the season, could hinder Burrow’s chances. There is a bit of luck involved in any MVP’s season, Burrow needs the Bengals to have a little luck staying near full health or better.
Buying The Value?: Buy, Burrow has been close in the MVP race, and a strong season with a fully established offensive line could finally push him over the top and secure him the victory.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+800)
Analysis: Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have been on the cusp of greatness for a few seasons now, and the hope is that this could be the year to finally push them over the top.
For that to happen, The Bills will need someone to step up as a dependable second weapon in the offense. Whether that’s Gabriel Davis, Dalton Kincaid, or someone else, the offense needs to possess the firepower to constantly keep defenses on their toes, unable to control the attack.
Things could go wrong, however, if the Bills aren’t able to win the division in what will be a tough battle of the AFC East. At the same time, if there isn’t an established second weapon in the passing game, then there could be issues trying to open up the offense against stronger defenses and hurt the push for an Allen MVP.
Buying The Value?: Sell, the later season months get awfully cold in Buffalo, and it creates some unfavorable conditions in the passing game. With a less productive end to the season, the momentum tends to stall for Josh Allen as an MVP candidate, not sure that will change this year.
Dark Horses To Win the 2023 NFL MVP
Just underneath the upper echelon of MVP candidates are the dark horse candidates. Many overlook the dark horse candidates, but that doesn’t mean they’re without good reason to buy in.
Most of these options are established studs but need just a few dominos to fall in their favor. Let’s break down the top options that fall under this umbrella.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (+1200)
Analysis: In 2019, Lamar Jackson was named the NFL’s MVP, but with injuries and a lack of supporting cast on offense, he hasn’t really worked his way back into contention consistently. There is, though, a great opportunity for that to change this season.
With the additions of Odell Beckham Jr, Zay Flowers, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken there is a lot of excitement surrounding the Ravens. For it to work out, Jackson will need to stay healthy while continuing to play at the high level he’s capable of.
If Jackson struggles to stay on the field or doesn’t demonstrate the passing production needed to set him over the top and comfortably as one of the league’s top quarterbacks, then he could miss out. The pressure will also be on the Ravens to succeed, as the AFC North is one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL.
Buying The Value?: Buy, Jackson has shown he’s plenty capable. With the new offense, the upside is there for him to recapture that magic. At +1200 value, Jackson is a great option to consider for an MVP vote.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+1400)
Analysis: After a dominant rookie season, the belief that Herbert could transcend into winning an MVP was established. While he hasn’t taken home any hardware, Herbert has played at a high level to be considered one of the best.
The Chargers have plenty of reason for excitement with their offense. The line is back healthy this season to help give Herbert more time to throw, Kellen Moore has been brought on as the offensive coordinator to help open up the offense, and the team also drafted Quentin Johnston to add an additional weapon into the passing game.
The Chargers do have a strange voodoo surrounding their team that seems to strike them every season, so the team staying healthy will be crucial. Not to mention that in a division with the Chiefs, the Chargers and Herbert will need to establish themselves over Kansas City and win the AFC West. If not, then Herbert’s quest for an MVP could be pushed back another season.
Buying The Value?: Sell, +1400 is an intriguing value, but the Chargers have a lot of questions on their roster in terms of durability. Not to mention, unseating the Chiefs as the divisional champ seems unlikely to push the narrative in Herbert’s favor.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (+2000)
Analysis: After two lackluster seasons, Tagovailoa stepped up in a major way with a newfound confidence under Head Coach Mike McDaniel and new wideout Tyreek Hill. Unfortunately, concussion issues stalled Tagovailoa’s momentum and availability, which took him out of the picture in the MVP conversation.
If he can stay healthy, there is a real case to be made that Tua not only has the chance to take the next step up as a quarterback, but the offense has enough firepower that he could also be in the MVP discussion as a result. For things to go right, the Dolphins would need to make the playoffs, which seems likely if they stay healthy.
However, they likely need to win the AFC East as a whole, and that can be tough with the Bills, Jets, and Patriots all going to be tough competition. If things fall in place, though, the Dolphins will be in a great position, and Tua could be the beneficiary of it.
However, if Tagovailoa struggles to remain on the field, the chance at MVP will quickly evaporate. Not to mention, he can’t go flat when facing off against some of the tough defensive opponents he’ll face both in and out of his division. At +2000, there were bound to be risks, but these aren’t going to be easy to overcome.
Buying The Value?: Buy, Tagovailoa is surrounded by great pieces in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The defense should be strong, too, under Vic Fangio. The team should succeed, and with Tua as the face of the team, an MVP could be given in his favor. At +2000 odds, the value is too good to pass up for the potential.
Longshots To Win the 2023 NFL MVP
The league is filled with players, and the MVP can come from anywhere. So when looking through the odds, who are some of the players that are further down with extreme returns that have a reasonable chance of winning it?
Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers (+3500)
Analysis: There are a lot of circulating debates surrounding the 49ers at the quarterback position, but Trey Lance is the expected Week 1 starter making Lance a longshot to win it. However, if he can play at a high enough level, there’s a chance he never lets go of the job.
Lance will be put in a position where he has great dual-threat ability in the most QB-friendly scheme in the NFL. The tools and opportunity check the boxes; with such high NFL odds, Lance could be a great gamble to win MVP.
The 49ers are bound to be one of the league’s best teams; if Lance can play a major role in the offensive success with additional rushing production padded on, he could establish himself as one of the young stars of the league and work himself into being named the league’s best.
Buying The Value?: Buy, if Lance can hold onto the starting job, there is a ton of upside and opportunity to thrive. At +3500 odds, the returns are too good to pass on.
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (+1400)
Analysis: This may be viewed as unlikely because the Chicago Bears were the worst team in the league last season. However, with additions to the offensive line, a new shiny star WR in DJ Moore, and another year of experience, Fields could erupt.
Last season, Fields started to catch fire with his ability to produce as a runner, but the passing game struggled due to a lack of weapons and consistency on the offensive line. If he can take a step forward as a passer, it could set up for a big season similar to Lamar Jackson’s 2019 MVP run.
If Fields can get in rhythm early with his offense and potentially be the face of the Bears on a potential playoff appearance, he could be rewarded for his team’s turnaround.
Buying The Value?: Sell, the Bears have done a great job surrounding Fields with a much better offense. But +1400 odds aren’t enough for him to warrant the bet. The Bears are still not there to be a top team in the NFC, and that’s been a common theme of most MVP winners.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (+10000)
Analysis: The MVP has been commonly regarded as a “QB Award,” and it very often is. However, that doesn’t mean it’s bound to always happen. Jefferson is a long shot at the receiver slot, but in an offense with limited supporting weapons, Jefferson is bound to receive a high volume of targets.
For this to happen, Jefferson would have to dominate. Cooper Kupp led the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in a single season and didn’t win it. So for Jefferson, he would have to break records and never have a game that’s less than stellar.
We know Jefferson is bound to capitalize on the incoming targets, so with such high volume, could he potentially take home an MVP award in the process? At such extreme odds, there is certainly value in taking the risk.
Buying The Value?: Sell, Jefferson is about as talented as anyone in the NFL, but there’s a steep uphill battle for non-quarterbacks in the NFL. Jefferson is no exception to that rule.
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NFL Football MVP & Season Long Player Props Betting Tips
There are countless awards and season-long player bets that can be placed, so approaching this betting category can be difficult. Here are some expert tips to help put you a step ahead of the sportsbooks and potentially improve your betting.
Create An Account With Multiple Sports Books
A zero-downside play, if you’re going to be placing bets, it’s absolutely worth working on multiple books – such as Bovada, for example. Regardless of what you bet, finding the best odds for that wager is always going to be the better play. Doing anything else is only hurting your winnings, and no one wants that.
There are many NFL betting sites available – make sure to take a look at our list and pick your favorite form there.
Follow The Trends
Steady results aren’t coincidental. For the MVP award, the winner has been QB for 11 straight seasons. When there is a season that a QB doesn’t win, it will be an anomaly more so than it would be that trend-changing.
The quarterback position demands so much attention from the media, and team success is so crucial you make sure not to overlook those aspects when placing bets. That also applies to things like offensive rookie of the year, where a quarterback will get the advantage over a skill player if it’s close – also, make sure to check out NFL betting systems for successful betting.
Take Advantage of Promotional Offers
Whether it’s signing up with a new sportsbook site or just seeing the promos they’re running every week, try to capitalize on the opportunities presented to you. Getting multipliers or boosts on your bets can be a great way to turn in better profits and capitalize on your wins.
You can bet on the most valued player for other leagues and sports , too. Here are some of them:
Best Sites to Bet On NFL MVP 2023-2024 Season
MyStake: For a great selection of NFL bets, MyStake is one of the best sportsbooks you can ask for. New users are also eligible to receive a 100% deposit match up to $500 with a minimum deposit of $20.
Bovada: NFL Fans love Bovada for its quickness and efficiency to put out bets throughout the season, and it’s bound to be enjoyed by you too. If you’re a new user, take advantage of their 50% deposit match up to $250 using fiat currency or a 75% match up to $750 with Bitcoin using code BTCSWB750. A 5x rollover applies to both bonuses.
BetOnline: BetOnline has a wide selection of future props, perfect for your early MVP bets for the upcoming football season. With them, new accounts get a 50% deposit match up to $1,000, although you’ll have to make a $55 deposit and meet a 10x rollover.
MyBookie: MyBookie can do it all, from live bets to unique player props, and a wide selection is perfect for the betting scene. Sign up today, and you’ll get a 50% deposit match of up to $1,000 with a $50 minimum deposit.
Sportsbetting.ag: There aren’t many sights that are as user-friendly and versatile as SportsBetting.ag. By signing up for a new account, you’ll be eligible for a 50% welcome bonus up to $1,000 using code SB1000, although a $55 minimum deposit and 10x rollover apply.
Guide to Betting on NFL MVP Winners
What Is the Best Strategy for Betting on the NFL MVP?
Finding who will win the MVP isn’t an exact science. However, there are a lot of commonalities that recent winners share.
Finding a quarterback that is in a good position to succeed, a team that will likely win plenty of games, and someone you trust to stay healthy through the course of the season are all checkboxes you should look for. The process is similar for NFL as well as NBA MVP odds and others.
When Is the NFL MVP Announced?
The MVP will be announced at the NFL Awards Show, which happens sometime in the week before Super Bowl Sunday.
The show is streamed on the same channel as the Super Bowl, so this year, it will be aired on CBS as the Super Bowl 2024 is airing there.
Who Won MVP Last Year?
Last season, Quarterback Patrick Mahomes won the MVP.
He helped lead the Kansas City Chiefs to a 14-3 record with a stat line of 5250 yards passing, 41 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. This was his second career MVP award, and he was the 11th player in NFL history to win the MVP and Super Bowl in the same season.
When Does The NFL Season Begin?
The NFL Regular Season kicks off on Thursday, September 7th. Where reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions.
The season will go on for 18 weeks, and each team will play 17 games. The regular season will then conclude on January 7th.
Ready to Bet on NFL MVP for 2023-2024 Season?
This NFL season is bound to be exciting, and there’s no better way to get in on the action than by placing a bet and tagging your success onto a player to track over the course of the season. Go out and find your favorite odds on your favorite contenders for the MVP, and see how it turns out this year.
If you are looking for the top sites to use, make sure to take a look at what Bovada has to offer.
No matter what site you end up using for your sports bets this season, please always wager responsibly.
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