Through three weeks we have started to gain clarity on how each team and player is going to fare for the NFL season ahead.
No player is going to consistently produce the same numbers from week to week, but we do have a good idea on the role and usage which can play a heavy indicator in their player props.
Before the Week 4 slate kicks off, here are the best bets to consider placing a wager on at betting sites like MyBookie.
Top Player Prop Bets for Week 4 Of The 2023 – 2024 NFL Season (Odds Taken from MyBookie)
Let’s have a look at the player props online:
Bijan Robinson vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 25.5 Receiving Yards
Analysis: The Atlanta Falcons surprised many with the decreased touches rookie RB Bijan Robinson had in Week 3 after his 172 total yard outing in their Week 2 victory over Green Bay. However, even in spite of the drop in carries, Robinson remained a force through the air.
As a receiving option, Robinson has recorded 17 targets and 14 receptions, leading all RBs in the NFL. Atlanta isn’t one to air the ball out consistently, but when they do, Bijan will be involved. Through three games, he has surpassed this 25.5 yard receiving mark each time, and as he continues to establish himself as the featured back of the offense, it’s possible his touches only go up.
Against Jacksonville, running backs have been inconsistent in terms of receiving production but through each game there has been a RB with 3 or more receptions, which should mean Bijan will get the ball in his hands enough to surpass this line.
Writer’s Pick: Over 25.5 Receiving Yards
Robinson had a flat outing in Week 3 from a production standpoint, but it was largely due to the team falling behind on the scoreboard than it was his own abilities, and even then he still has been great as a receiving threat. Expect the Falcons to lean on him more both on the ground and through the air, and expect him to surpass this total once again.
Tyreek Hill vs Buffalo Bills: 86.5 Receiving Yards
Analysis: The Dolphins offense is bar none, the hottest story in the NFL right now after their 70-point scoring outburst against the Denver Broncos. WR Tyreek Hill played a key part in that as he exploded for 157 yards and a touchdown and looks to be in store for a huge season.
However, some may be left scratching their heads when they go to place some player prop bets for Week 4 and see that Hill’s yardage number is nearly cut in half for Week 4? What could make him drop off so much?
While the Dolphins and Tyreek Hill have looked outstanding, this line is definitely not as simple a bet as it appears. Last season, Hill went against Buffalo twice in the regular season and a third time in playoffs. In all three outings, he went under this 86.5-yard marker.
Miami is red hot, but this Buffalo defense is very strong. Expect this line to be closer than the video game numbers Hill has recorded up to this point.
Writer’s Pick: Under 86.5 receiving Yards
It is going to be hard to ever bet against the Dolphins offense right now, but the right move is to follow the under. With the history being on the Bills side in this one, sometimes you have to go against momentum and roll with the data.
Matthew Stafford vs. Indianapolis Colts: 3.5 Rushing Yards
Analysis: Stafford is far from a mobile quarterback, and that’s why the 3.5 yard rushing line is so interesting for this Sunday’s contest against the Indianapolis Colts.
Through three games, Stafford has surpassed this line all three times. However, historically Stafford doesn’t scramble often, and twice in nine games last season. Even in 2021, when he was healthy as the Rams made their Super Bowl run, he only passed this number seven out of 22 games. Yet in 2023, Stafford has rushed for over 3.5 in all three contests and now faces off against Indianapolis for a chance to push the streak to four.
On the Indianapolis side of things, quarterbacks have rushed for over 3.5 times twice in three games, but the QBs that did it were Trevor Lawrence and Lamar Jackson, who are much more likely to produce on the ground than Stafford is. The line is certainly interesting, so which side of it will Stafford fall on?
Writer’s Pick: Over 3.5 Rushing Yards
Follow the hot hand, and Stafford’s got it. While the quarterback isn’t notorious for rushing, there’s a decent chance he takes a carry or two, and 3.5 yards with that is certainly within reach. Although he won’t push the total much higher.
Alvin Kamara vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2.5 Receptions
Analysis: After serving a 3-game suspension, RB Alvin Kamara is finally back for the Saints and should step in as the featured back with a large role in this offense. Kamara struggled last season, showing signs of regression that could concern some. However, there has been a lot of hype from the offseason that the back looks to have recovered his old flash and should be back to producing at a high level.
QB Derek Carr is questionable for this contest, so QBs Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill could be leading the offense. Which could both hurt or help Kamara. The Tampa Bay defense is a strout one, that will no doubt create issues for the Saints rushing attack.
As a result, Kamara could be a common check-down option, in 2022 Kamara surpassed 2.5 receptions in 9 out of 15 contests, but his misses were later in the season, which could be a sign of fatigue that won’t exist here.
Writer’s Pick: Over 2.5 Receptions
Kamara is back and the Saints will play to that, with a scary Bucs defense opposing them, expect a few check downs and additional targets to go Kamara’s way and for him to smash this total.
Sam Howell vs. Philadelphia Eagles: 214.5 Passing Yards
Analysis: The Sam Howell Hype Train lost plenty of steam last weekend as the quarterback threw an abysmal four interceptions in their loss to the Buffalo Bills. However, the young QB looked alright in the two games prior.
Assuming Howell doesn’t enter chaos mode of killing four drives again, 214.5 is a fairly attainable number that he should be able to hit. With the Eagles allowing for two quarterbacks to surpass the 300-yard mark through the first three contests, there is reason to believe that Howell can achieve this mark.
The Eagles did have a tremendous Week 3 performance against Tampa Bay, where QB Baker Mayfield was held to 146 yards through the air, but the Commanders have a more balanced attack with RB Brian Robinson producing on the ground to this point that should open up more opportunities for Howell.
Writer’s Pick: Over 214.5 Passing Yards
This one could be close, and many opinions will be split. However, Howell has a lot of pressure on him to bounce back after his Week 3 debacle, so in the face of adversity, expect him to step up and produce enough to cover this line.
Javonte Williams vs. Chicago Bears: Anytime Touchdown (-135)
Analysis: It may be hard to have confidence in anything Broncos-related after the thrashing they faced last weekend against the Miami Dolphins, but there are still some valuable betting lines worth considering for their upcoming game against Chicago.
Williams has actually done well up to this point in the season despite the lackluster stats. Currently, he ranks 7th in the NFL for yardage after contact at 2.4. Then, on top of that, he’s been fairly involved in the receiving game despite RB Semaje Perine taking some snaps.
The big draw for him to finally get his score is that he gets to go against a struggling Chicago defense that has allowed 7 RB touchdowns through 3 games. That should definitely instill confidence that Williams will find paydirt on Sunday.
Writer’s Pick: Scores Over 1 TD
The simple logic here is that the Bears defense is quite bad and has allowed for RBs to score at will up to this point in the season. Williams is still not back to 100%, it appears, but will be called on plenty this weekend, expect him to score and for you to cash in on this bet.
Derrick Henry vs. Cincinnati Bengals: 69.5 Rushing Yards
Analysis: Rookie RB Tyjae Spears has been a thorn in the side of Derrick Henry’s production to this point in the season, and for those betting on his success on the ground it can be quite frustrating. However, the biggest lesson you can learn is to adapt and move forward.
The Titans have made it clear that Spears will have a prominent role in this offense, so Henry likely isn’t the bellcow he was considered to be in years past. That could make 69.5 rushing yards a difficult number to achieve in Sunday’s contest.
On top of that, Henry has gone against Cincinnati twice in the past two seasons, where he ran the ball 17 times for 38 yards in 2022 and 20 times for 62 yards in 2021. Both instances were bad circumstances for injuries to him or QB Ryan Tannehill that limited his chances, but they’re still worth noting.
Writer’s Pick: Under 69.5 Rushing Yards
The Titans seem to be making it clear how they want to approach the early parts of the season, and that’s preservation. Derrick Henry still looks every bit as good as he’s ever been, but Tennessee will limit his overall snaps in order to unleash him later on in the season. Against a stout Bengals team, Henry likely won’t outperform 70 yards on limited carries.
Josh Palmer vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 43.5 Receiving Yards
Analysis: After losing WR Mike Williams for the year to a torn ACL, the Chargers now have a large chunk of targets to spread out in their offense. While the most logical solution to that answer would be WR Quentin Johnston stepping up in that role, it isn’t so black and white. WR Josh Palmer is the veteran presence and will command targets with a large snap percentage on the field.
His snap share likely jumps up as a result into the 70-80% range, and when Palmer was on the field last season for 75% or more of snaps, he surpassed this 43.5 marker 8 out of 11 times. Added in with the fact that the Raiders defense has been shaky to this point in the season, it’s logical to expect that the Chargers will find some success through the air in this one. Palmer should be a beneficiary of that.
Writer’s Pick: Over 43.5 Receiving Yards
Quentin Johnston should eventually become a very high-end contributor in this offense, but while he’s still green, expect the veterans to get the large sum of targets. That means Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer should be in for good days, 43.5 is reasonably attainable against Las Vegas.
Kendrick Bourne vs. Dallas Cowboys: 32.5 Receiving Yards
Analysis: The Patriots finally notched their first victory in a showdown against their divisional foe, the New York Jets, but they still aren’t content to fall to 1-3. QB Mac Jones has been fine to this point, but the offense needs to find a more consistent stream of success.
WR Kendrick Bourne seems to be the most dependable receiver on this roster and has been the one steady source of production through each game. While he has had a game under this 32.5-yard marker, it seems like the Patriots should continue to rely on him as he establishes himself as the best weapon for this offense.
Dallas looked phenomenal defensively through the first two weeks, but star CB Trevon Diggs tore his ACL, and they came out flat in their Week 3 loss to Arizona. In that contest, two receivers put up 60+ yards. While that doesn’t necessarily translate directly, Bourne has been a top two receiver in terms of production in each contest so far.
Writer’s Pick: Over 32.5 Receiving Yards
This could be a tight contest, but the Patriots are still figuring things out offensively. However, Bourne seems to be one of the most sure-thing targets for this passing game, so expect him to be leaned on enough to outperform this line.
Kenneth Walker III vs. New York Giants: 63.5 Rushing Yards
Analysis: The Seahawks stumbled out of the gates but have found a rhythm offensively, and RB Kenneth Walker III has played a major role in their success. Despite the looming threat of rookie RB Zach Charbonnet taking a chunk of the backfield, Walker has remained the featured back of this team and has succeeded in the role.
For the 63.5-yardage mark, Walker has hit this number twice in three games to this point. However, the Giants have allowed the lead rusher to surpass that number in all three of their games up to this point. That could set the Seahawks up for a nice day on the ground.
Writer’s Pick: Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
Seattle has a very good offense, and Kenneth Walker is a great back. With the Giants struggling to this point defensively, it’s unlikely they fix their issues enough to hold Walker under this 63.5 mark set by the sportsbooks.
Explaining Player Prop Bets: How Do NFL Prop Bets Work?
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Player Prop bets are lines set by sportsbooks that will decide a certain total in the statistical department for an upcoming game.
For example, a receiver may have a 74.5 receiving yards over/under for their upcoming matchup, or a quarterback may have a 256.5 passing yard prop. Your objective is to decide before the game whether that number will be higher or lower than the line set by the books.
Advantages of Betting NFL Player Props
Betting on player props is a great way to take the result of the game out of the equation and depend solely on a specific player. On top of that, you can find out the results of your bets quicker than an entire game sometimes, which can add convenience.
The ultimate benefit to player props, though, is they allow you more options when placing bets, giving you more options to ensure confidence when you’re placing wagers.
Disadvantages of Betting NFL Player Props
The disadvantages of player prop bets would have to be that you could have your attention drawn away from the game and glued to one player if you’re depending on their production.
Similarly, there are times when a single unfortunate injury or coaching decision could take the player out of the chance at achieving their line, while a team-based bet will always be played no matter who is on the field.
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How to Bet on Player Props During Week 4 Of The NFL
You’ve seen the player props we’ve discussed, and now it’s time to ensure you’re situated and ready to bet. It can, at times, be a bit confusing, so here is a step-by-step guide for BetOnline, one of our top recommended sportsbooks for betting on the NFL.
Step 1 – Register for a New Account
- Click here to visit BetOnline and click the green ‘Join’ button
- Fill out all the sign up details needed
Step 2 – Validate Your Account
- Check your email account for the validation link
- If you don’t see it in your inbox, try checking your junk folder
- Once you’ve located it, verify your account by clicking the confirmation link provided
Step 3 – Make Your Deposit
- Deposit account funds using your preferred payment method
- Find and take advantage of the site’s promotional offer
Step 4 – Bet on NFL Week 4 Online
- Go to the betting section
- Start betting on NFL Week 4 Player Props
NFL Player Props Betting Tips & Strategies
As you start to decide on what player prop bets you’d like to make, take a few of these tips and strategies into consideration before you hit the books. Just a few added ideas can go a long way for you and your week-to-week success when betting on the NFL or any other sport.
1. Sign Up With Multiple Sportsbooks
When you make an account, it can be easy to stick to one platform. However, you’re only limiting yourself when you do that. By signing up with multiple sportsbooks, you get the chance of sign-up bonuses, and you get to shop varying odds between the books to find where you can get the best returns on your wagers.
2. Find & Utilize Promotional Offers
Sportsbooks want you to get involved, and they’ll do their best to make sure it happens. Check out each sportsbook’s promotions every day or week, and you’ll likely find some great bonuses, boosts, or offers that can help increase your bets with no harm added on. It’s a no-lose situation if you’re already betting anyway.
3. Don’t Overload Overlapping Props
One team can only put up so much in terms of points and yardage. So when betting on player props, make sure you aren’t placing too many props that compete against one another. For instance, the Miami Dolphins have two very talented receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but they both compete against each other for receiving yards every game.
So, instead of betting on their overs, try to bet on players on separate teams in order to avoid bets where the success of one bet would only take away from the other.
Best Sites to Bet On Player Props For Week 4 Of The 2023/2024 NFL Season
MyBookie: MyBookie is perfect for prop betting as the platform offers a large variety of bets that gives you a great selection to find bets you feel confident about for the NFL. New users who choose to sign up will be eligible for a 50% deposit match of up to $1,000 with a $50 minimum deposit.
BUSR: BUSR is a great sportsbook to depend on for early betting lines each week which can be great when it comes to placing wagers on football. Sign up now to take advantage of their welcome offer, where you’ll receive a $1,500 sign-on bonus.
Bovada: Bovada is one of the best all-around betting sites in the business and has become a notable trusted brand as a result. They also offer a 50% deposit match for new sign-ups up to $250 using fiat currency or a 75% match up to $750 with Bitcoin using code BTCSWB750. A 5x rollover applies to both bonuses.
BetOnline: BetOnline is a great website for finding the best NFL odds, and they also have an easy-to-navigate site to make the betting process simple. New users who sign up are eligible for a 50% deposit match up to $1,000 to new users, although you’ll have to make a $55 deposit and meet a 10x rollover.
Sportsbetting.ag: Sportsbetting.ag has made a reputation as one of the best live betting platforms in sports, but they also have a great selection of props. For their sign-up promotion, you could receive a 50% welcome bonus up to $1,000 using code SB1000, although a $55 minimum deposit and 10x rollover apply.
Guide to Week 4 NFL Player Prop Betting: Frequently Asked Questions
Despite all the information, there are probably still plenty of questions you’d like answered. Here are some additional answers to help provide you with some more clarity when it comes to player prop betting on Week 4 of the NFL.
Is There A Way To Get Different Numbers On Player Props?
There is a way to get different numbers for player props, and these are called alternate lines. These can either increase or decrease your odds based on where the alternate line is relative to the over/under set by sportsbooks.
Is Betting On NFL Player Props Safe?
Betting on player props is safe, with dependable sportsbooks often offering them. Of course, make sure you find a reliable platform when placing your bets. Player props are a bit risky, but no more so than any other bet, and can be a fun, unique wager option for those looking to add variety to their bets.
Is It Better To Bet Over or Under On Player Props?
When it comes to placing bets on player props, the better bet is to go with over. This makes a player’s performance and your bet easier to track through the contest. However, in terms of which hits more often, there is a fairly even spread, so it is dependent on match-up.
When Will Week 4 of the NFL Season Begin?
The fourth week of the NFL Season begins Thursday, September 28th, when the Detroit Lions travel to Green Bay to play the Packers. The game is scheduled to kick off at 8:15 PM EST and will be available on Amazon Prime Video.
The Lions are currently set as 2.5-point favorites, with an over/under point total for the match currently sitting at 45.5.
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Ready to Place Your NFL Week 4 Player Props Bets?
There is a large selection to choose from when it comes to the player props in Week 4 and there are great wagers to make as a result. This slate of NFL football promises to be quite exciting, and the players make up the large sum of that. It’s time to hit the books and call your shots on how they’ll perform!
Regardless of where you place your wagers, we advise you to be sure that you do so safely and responsibly!
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